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Precipitation Forecast WRF 4km 1 week 4 days ago #833

  • seergy
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Hi,
Is there any problem in Precipitation forecast in WRF Israel 4km?

I noticed a big difference in the precipitation forecast between the last two updates (12Z14NOV2020 and 00Z15NOV2020) . In the last update (00Z15NOV2020), precipitation covers a large area in a different pattern from the update (12Z14NOV2020).

This is an example of precipitation forecast at Sun,15 Nov - 07:00 local for the last two updates.
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Precipitation Forecast WRF 4km 1 week 4 days ago #834

Hi Sergey,
There may be an issue. The 00z run as of today is on a newer version of UEMS/WRF while the 12z run is on a previous version. I will keep an eye on the differences and if needed will revert back one version.
Thanks for pointing it out.
David

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Precipitation Forecast WRF 4km 1 week 4 days ago #835

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Thank you very much.

I think that this new version has a problem in precipitation forecast because today's forecast was inaccurate compared to the rain radar. Also, there was a difference between cloud coverage and precipitation forecast. There was a precipitation with no cloud coverage as shown below at Sun,15 Nov - 04:00 local.
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Precipitation Forecast WRF 4km 1 week 3 days ago #836

Problem is solved.
As I mentioned the 00z forecast and the 12z forecast are run on different servers. The 00z forecast today had a problem setting the run configurations and ran with an unsuitable convection module which output a lousy forecast. The problem has been fixed and the 00z forecast tomorrow should be improved and correspond somewhat with the 12z forecast.
David

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Precipitation Forecast WRF 4km 1 week 3 days ago #837

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You mentioned that the 00z forecast run on a newer version of UEMS/WRF while the 12z forecast run on a previous version.
Are you planning to use the newer version of UEMS/WRF also with 12z forecast?
Thank you.

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Precipitation Forecast WRF 4km 1 week 3 days ago #838

Once a number of small issues have been fixed in the new version and a maintenance release will be published - all openWRF production runs will move to the newer version (WRF 4.21). In the mean time only Crusade 12km and Israel 4km are running on the new version for the 00z forecast

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