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WRF 4km Precipitation 4 years 1 week ago #851

  • seergy
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Hi,
Is there any issue in forecasting precipitation for today in the WRF Israel 4km model?
The last two runs 12Z07DEC2020 and 00Z08DEC2020 showed precipitation for today at the times 12:00 ,13:00 ,14:00 ,15:00 local and there is nothing in the rain radar.
Here is some of the screenshots of the last run 00Z08DEC2020.
Thank you
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Last edit: by seergy.

WRF 4km Precipitation 4 years 1 week ago #852

Hi Sergey,
The reason that there is no rain seen in the IMS radar picture is that their radar is not working. This affects the IMS rain map which is based on a combination of the radar map and automatic real time rain measurements. As most of this afternoon's rain was just off shore it does not show up in the IMS map. The WRF prediction may have been a bit optimistic and 2 hours early in the prediction time but it was close to reality.
For the last few years the WRF 4km model has shown an excellent track record in predicting precipitation, comparable and even better that the IMS COSMO model.
David

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WRF 4km Precipitation 4 years 1 week ago #853

  • seergy
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Thank you very much for your explanation and for your efforts.

I noticed that there was an improvement in the accuracy of WRF 4km for the last few years.
Is it due to the improvement of the GFS model which is the boundary conditions for the WRF as I know?
Is it due to the use different scheme in predicting precipitation or because using newer versions of the WRF?

Thanks

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WRF 4km Precipitation 4 years 1 week ago #854

Hi,
I think that it is partially due to the GFS improvements but more to optimizations in the choice of physics schemes in the configuration of the model. We made some significant changes about 2 years ago and this has improved the precipitation forecasts and identification of convection events without degrading the surface wind predictions. The upgrades in the model itself are minor. Choosing the best suite of schemes makes the most impact.
David

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