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Snow depth prediction - WRF 4km 5 days 16 hours ago #858

  • seergy
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Hi,
I noticed that the snow forecast for the WRF 4km model was over estimated in the last depression system in the East Med especially in Wednesday morning 17FEB2021 .
Was the over estimated snow prediction related to the micro-physics scheme or because of initial conditions of GFS model?

I have attached some screenshots for the snow depth prediction (Ref:12Z16FEB2021) with some examples with red circles.
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Snow depth prediction - WRF 4km 5 days 15 hours ago #859

Hi,
Snow parameters are not in the GFS set of parameters used for initialization of WRF. So the snow prediction is entirely internal to WRF. The snow prediction in this case was probably more affected by miss estimation of freezing altitude, as the total precipitation was estimated quite well.
David

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Snow depth prediction - WRF 4km 5 days 15 hours ago #860

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Could this be fixed by adjusting the micro-physics scheme of the snow prediction to give better results?
I hope the WRF model is able to predict snow very accurately.
Thanks

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Snow depth prediction - WRF 4km 5 days 5 hours ago #861

Hi,
It involves much more than just the micro-physics scheme. Precipitation is also an outcome of the cumulus related schemes. Isotherms at height levels are determined by other schemes. It would not be wise to start adjusting a well balanced model with good prediction performance unless a systematic error is noticed and there is the possibility of firm evidence of what the true measures were over a significant time period.
Regarding snow, I only have informal and unscientific feedback from a group of snow buffs in England who do cross country skiing in the north of the UK and they have informed me that they follow the openWRF snow coverage of the UK as their best resource.

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Snow depth prediction - WRF 4km 4 days 15 hours ago #862

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Thank you very much for your explanation and for your efforts.

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